WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. cattle numbers edged lower at the start of 2026, reinforcing that herd rebuilding remains slow and uneven despite improving price incentives. USDA’s January 1 Cattle Inventory Report shows modest declines across most categories, with beef cow numbers continuing to contract while milk cows expand.
All cattle and calves totaled 86.2 million head on January 1, down slightly from 86.5 million head a year earlier. Cows and heifers that have calved declined marginally to 37.2 million head. Beef cows fell 1 percent to 27.6 million head, while milk cows increased 2 percent to 9.57 million head, reflecting divergent trends between the beef and dairy sectors.
Heifer inventories signal limited momentum toward herd expansion. All heifers weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 18.0 million head, down 1 percent from a year ago. Beef replacement heifers rose 1 percent to 4.71 million head, but milk replacement heifers slipped slightly to 3.90 million head. Other heifers declined 2 percent, underscoring continued tightness in the replacement pipeline.
Market-ready supplies also remain constrained. Steers over 500 pounds declined 1 percent to 15.6 million head, while calves under 500 pounds dipped slightly to 13.3 million head. Total cattle on feed fell 3 percent to 13.8 million head, confirming tighter feedlot inventories entering 2026.
The calf crop continues to shrink. The 2025 calf crop was estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2 percent from 2024, with fewer calves born in both the first and second halves of the year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
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