LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Uncertainty is shaping the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade in 2026 as tariffs and shifting trade relationships continue to disrupt long-established export patterns. Luis Ribera, director of the Center for North American Studies, says trade policy volatility has become a defining feature of the farm economy heading into the new year.
USDA projects U.S. agricultural exports to fall to $173 billion in 2026, the lowest level since 2021. That decline reflects both lower volumes and weaker values, driven primarily by reduced soybean and sorghum shipments to China. Ribera notes China has increasingly sourced those commodities from Brazil and Argentina as tariffs have altered relative prices and trade flows.
While U.S. exports to markets such as the European Union, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam have grown, those gains have not fully offset losses tied to China. As a result, overall export momentum remains fragile.
On the import side, U.S. agricultural imports are expected to peak at approximately $219 billion in 2025, then ease in 2026. Lower volumes of horticultural products and vegetable oils are projected, though higher prices for coffee and cocoa continue to lift import values. Ribera says recently announced tariff exemptions on select agricultural goods could help temper consumer food costs, but uncertainty remains elevated.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
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