USDA Livestock Outlook Shows Tight Beef Supply Pressure

Tight cattle supplies should keep beef prices supported, while dairy, pork, and poultry are poised for greater production growth.

ARGENTINIAN CATTLE_PHOTO BY FOTO4440 VIA AdobeStock_256925881.jpg

Steers in a pasture in Pampas, Argentina.

Photo by foto4440 via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Tight cattle supplies remain the strongest signal in the USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, with beef production lowered for 2026 and expected to decline again in 2027. USDA now forecasts 2026 beef production at 25.547 billion pounds, down 243 million pounds from last month.

Cattle prices are projected to be higher this year, with new highs expected in 2027 as supplies stay limited. Beef imports are forecast to be higher in 2026, while exports are expected to soften next year due to lower production.

Dairy looks steadier. USDA projects the dairy herd at 9.620 million head in both 2026 and 2027, with higher milk yield lifting 2027 production to 236.0 billion pounds. The 2027 all-milk price is forecast at $20.95 per hundredweight.

Pork production is expected to rise 1 percent in 2027, while hog prices decline. Pork exports are forecast to rise, driven by demand in the Western Hemisphere.

Broiler, egg, and turkey production are all projected to increase year-over-year in 2027.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies should keep beef prices supported, while dairy, pork, and poultry are poised for greater production growth.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Flour milling demand stayed generally steady, but total wheat grind remained slightly softer year over year.
The latest developments point to shifting export routes, higher congestion risk, and continuing cost pressure for grain, fertilizer, and energy shipments.
Tyson is still reshaping its beef footprint.
National Corn Growers First VP Matt Frostic joins us to discuss their 62nd annual yield contest, the new short-season corn pilot class, and what farmers can expect as the season gets underway.
Industry leaders gather in Mexico City to strengthen trade and showcase product quality.
Purdue University’s Dr. Michael Langemeier joins us to break down the latest read on farmer sentiment in the April Ag Economy Barometer, and growing concerns about the impact of global conflict on farm inputs and income.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

A more independent UAE could add long-term pressure and volatility to energy markets, affecting fuel and fertilizer costs.
Clean power growth remains strong, but slower deal-making could affect future rural energy and land-use opportunities.
Higher biofuel mandates boost long-term crop demand, but a tighter D4 market may pressure biofuel feedstocks and pose new soybean oil demand risks.
ASFMRA’s Luke Worrell joined us to discuss farmland market trends, insights from the Illinois Land Values Conference, changing buyer and seller demographics, and the latest outlook on planting progress.
EPA’s approval gives citrus growers a new disease-fighting tool against greening at a time when production losses remain severe.
Higher input costs are making flexible marketing plans and updated break-even targets more important.