Business  Markets

USDA Livestock Outlook Shows Tight Beef Supply Pressure

Tight cattle supplies should keep beef prices supported, while dairy, pork, and poultry are poised for greater production growth.

May 25, 2026 12:00 PM • 
Tony St. James
ARGENTINIAN CATTLE_PHOTO BY FOTO4440 VIA AdobeStock_256925881.jpg

Steers in a pasture in Pampas, Argentina.

Photo by foto4440 via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Tight cattle supplies remain the strongest signal in the USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, with beef production lowered for 2026 and expected to decline again in 2027. USDA now forecasts 2026 beef production at 25.547 billion pounds, down 243 million pounds from last month.

Cattle prices are projected to be higher this year, with new highs expected in 2027 as supplies stay limited. Beef imports are forecast to be higher in 2026, while exports are expected to soften next year due to lower production.

Dairy looks steadier. USDA projects the dairy herd at 9.620 million head in both 2026 and 2027, with higher milk yield lifting 2027 production to 236.0 billion pounds. The 2027 all-milk price is forecast at $20.95 per hundredweight.

Pork production is expected to rise 1 percent in 2027, while hog prices decline. Pork exports are forecast to rise, driven by demand in the Western Hemisphere.

Broiler, egg, and turkey production are all projected to increase year-over-year in 2027.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies should keep beef prices supported, while dairy, pork, and poultry are poised for greater production growth.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
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Tony St. James
Tony St. James
Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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