WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) for December from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects higher 2025 beef production and lower cattle prices as slaughter runs above expectations and carcass weights trend heavier.
Beef imports for 2025 are expected to be lower based on trade data to date, but are projected to increase in 2026 as tariff changes improve access for key suppliers. Beef exports are trimmed for both years, reflecting softer demand in major markets.
Hog sector projections shift modestly lower for 2025, with reduced slaughter pulling production down and pressuring late-year prices. Pork exports are expected to be lower this year but to rebound in 2026 as global demand improves.
Dairy outlooks are mixed. Milk production is unchanged in 2025 but lower in 2026, as smaller cow inventories offset productivity gains. Butter remains competitive in global markets, supporting export gains, while cheese prices weaken amid soft domestic demand. The all-milk price is cut to $21.00 per cwt for 2025 and $18.75 for 2026.
In the poultry sector, broiler production rose on earlier-year gains, but turkey output drops due to HPAI culling, and egg forecasts remain steady.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James breaks down the USDA’s newly unveiled plan to rebuild the US beef herd and the industry’s spectrum of responses to it.
October 23, 2025 03:06 PM
·
Rising demand for Comfort Colors t-shirts reinforces the pull for U.S.-grown cotton, linking rural fiber production to a fast-growing mainstream apparel brand.
October 23, 2025 03:06 PM
·
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Bernt Nelson provides an updated outlook on the current U.S. cattle market.
October 23, 2025 02:20 PM
·
Sen. Roger Marshall explains which types of beef are imported into the United States, how there’s room for new imports, and logical reasons for current high prices.
October 23, 2025 12:10 PM
·
Record Australian exports and rising U.S. imports reflect continued tight domestic cattle supplies — a reminder that herd recovery remains key to balancing future beef prices.
October 23, 2025 11:56 AM
·
U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) discusses the USDA’s new cattle plan, ethanol policy, and the broader challenges ahead for rural America.
October 23, 2025 11:24 AM
·
