USDA Trims Beef Outlook, Raises Pork Production Forecast

Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September WASDE report adjusted 2025 livestock projections, signaling shifts in beef and pork markets while leaving poultry largely steady.

The USDA’s outlook points to slightly weaker cattle and hog prices as supplies remain ample, but dairy and poultry show firmer pricing. Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.

BEEF AND DAIRY CATTLE

For beef, the USDA lowered production slightly as lighter-fed cattle weights offset larger-than-expected slaughter. Exports were reduced due to weaker Asian demand, while imports were raised with strong inflows from Australia. Cattle prices are projected to be lower, with the 2025 steer price forecast trimmed to $176 per hundredweight (cwt).

In dairy, milk production was left essentially unchanged, but the USDA raised its Class III and Class IV milk price forecasts on more pungent cheese and butter demand. The all-milk price for 2025 is now forecast at $22.00/cwt.

PORK

Pork production was increased due to higher-than-anticipated slaughter numbers. Exports were raised modestly, reflecting stronger demand from Mexico and Asia. The 2025 hog price was adjusted downward to $65.50/cwt, pressured by larger supplies.

POULTRY

For broilers, production forecasts held steady, but the USDA lowered exports on weaker international demand. Prices are expected to remain firm at $1.29 per pound for 2025. Turkey production and trade forecasts were unchanged, with prices stable at $1.24 per pound.

Related Stories
RFD-TV’s Tammi Arender visited ZK Ranches in Springfield, Tennessee, to cook some of their homegrown beef, including Date Night Filet Mignon!
What better way to celebrate our beef producers than to eat a delicious burger recipe? RFD-TV’s Tammi Arender shows us a new way to dress up our burgers that will impress everyone this grilling season.
NCBA is not historically in favor of tariffs, but sees them as a necessary tool in the current environment.

(Tags: USDA, WASDE, Beef, Pork, Dairy, Poultry, Livestock Markets)

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The Lexington shutdown pushes national slaughter capacity utilization nearer long-run averages, underscoring how tight cattle supplies are reshaping packer operations.
Raulston Acres Christmas Tree Farm in Rock Springs, Ga., has been in the same family for three generations.
Reed Marcum started hosting a toy drive in 2015. Since then, he has distributed thousands of toys across his home state of Oklahoma and in Texas and Arkansas. Now serving in the Army, Reed’s family and local 4-H chapter are running the event.
RFD-TV Farm Legal and Tax Expert Roger McEowen explains the basics of Low-Risk Credit in Farming, and how an understanding of the farm credit landscape lets producers tactfully approach debt.
Mike Steenhoek, with the Soy Transportation Commission, shares his outlook on current grain stocks and transportation lines amid bumper crops filling bins across the United States.
Renewable Fuels Association President & CEO Geoff Cooper explains their call for reciprocal duties on Chinese ag imports after China failed to meet past promises on ethanol production.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.