USDA Trims Beef Outlook, Raises Pork Production Forecast

Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September WASDE report adjusted 2025 livestock projections, signaling shifts in beef and pork markets while leaving poultry largely steady.

The USDA’s outlook points to slightly weaker cattle and hog prices as supplies remain ample, but dairy and poultry show firmer pricing. Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.

BEEF AND DAIRY CATTLE

For beef, the USDA lowered production slightly as lighter-fed cattle weights offset larger-than-expected slaughter. Exports were reduced due to weaker Asian demand, while imports were raised with strong inflows from Australia. Cattle prices are projected to be lower, with the 2025 steer price forecast trimmed to $176 per hundredweight (cwt).

In dairy, milk production was left essentially unchanged, but the USDA raised its Class III and Class IV milk price forecasts on more pungent cheese and butter demand. The all-milk price for 2025 is now forecast at $22.00/cwt.

PORK

Pork production was increased due to higher-than-anticipated slaughter numbers. Exports were raised modestly, reflecting stronger demand from Mexico and Asia. The 2025 hog price was adjusted downward to $65.50/cwt, pressured by larger supplies.

POULTRY

For broilers, production forecasts held steady, but the USDA lowered exports on weaker international demand. Prices are expected to remain firm at $1.29 per pound for 2025. Turkey production and trade forecasts were unchanged, with prices stable at $1.24 per pound.

Related Stories
manage risk as milk price volatility increases.
Strong beef demand is offsetting weaker cash cattle.
Brazil logistics issues may support U.S. soybean demand.
Productivity gains are supporting supply despite limited herd expansion.
Young exhibitors balance school and months of preparation as they compete at one of Texas’s largest livestock events.
Brooks York with AgriSompo addresses how current market conditions and risk management are impacted by volatility in the Middle East, and considerations for farmers in the spring planting season.

(Tags: USDA, WASDE, Beef, Pork, Dairy, Poultry, Livestock Markets)

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Expect business-as-usual for most container exports.
Cade Fiske’s approach embodies the spirit of the FFA — blending education, leadership, and innovation to inspire the future of agriculture.
The Washington Tree Fruit Association says this is not surprising and notes the USDA has offered a lifeline to growers while they transition away from the cannery market.
Searches for “struggle meal” hit a record high in September, and #strugglemeals posts are climbing on Instagram and TikTok, reflecting a wave of budget-cooking content.
CoBank Lead Grains Economist Tanner Ehmke joins us to share insight and concerns over current grain storage capacity as export demand lags.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.