USDA Trims Beef Outlook, Raises Pork Production Forecast

Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September WASDE report adjusted 2025 livestock projections, signaling shifts in beef and pork markets while leaving poultry largely steady.

The USDA’s outlook points to slightly weaker cattle and hog prices as supplies remain ample, but dairy and poultry show firmer pricing. Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.

BEEF AND DAIRY CATTLE

For beef, the USDA lowered production slightly as lighter-fed cattle weights offset larger-than-expected slaughter. Exports were reduced due to weaker Asian demand, while imports were raised with strong inflows from Australia. Cattle prices are projected to be lower, with the 2025 steer price forecast trimmed to $176 per hundredweight (cwt).

In dairy, milk production was left essentially unchanged, but the USDA raised its Class III and Class IV milk price forecasts on more pungent cheese and butter demand. The all-milk price for 2025 is now forecast at $22.00/cwt.

PORK

Pork production was increased due to higher-than-anticipated slaughter numbers. Exports were raised modestly, reflecting stronger demand from Mexico and Asia. The 2025 hog price was adjusted downward to $65.50/cwt, pressured by larger supplies.

POULTRY

For broilers, production forecasts held steady, but the USDA lowered exports on weaker international demand. Prices are expected to remain firm at $1.29 per pound for 2025. Turkey production and trade forecasts were unchanged, with prices stable at $1.24 per pound.

Related Stories
Rising production underscores the importance of marketing discipline and margin protection as milk supplies expand.
Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-IA, details how the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBBA) supports farmers, biofuels, and rural communities with tax breaks, crop insurance relief, and ag infrastructure.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains why the 2026 USMCA review could directly affect dairy access, produce competition, and export reliability for U.S. farmers and ranchers.
The report shows that, despite production challenges, dairy farmers are producing more milk with fewer resources per gallon across the industry.
Smaller U.S. production and steady global demand could provide better pricing opportunities in 2026.
Reviewing risk management now can help dairy and livestock producers enter 2026 with clearer margins and fewer surprises.

(Tags: USDA, WASDE, Beef, Pork, Dairy, Poultry, Livestock Markets)

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farmer Ed Bell shares how AGRAbility helped him return to his family’s strawberry farm and inspire resilience, legacy, and hope in rural life.
Weskan Grain CEO Will Bramblett discusses the antitrust lawsuit filed by grain farmers and agribusinesses, and its potential implications on rail competition and market access.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney shares insight into Canada’s trade push in Mexico and what it could signal for agriculture and the USMCA moving forward.
Jim Rothermich with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers joined us to share the latest on farmland real estate markets across the Midwest.
Lawmakers request information from CEO Scott Stump over sponsorship concerns and potential implications for the organization’s nonprofit status.
Roger McEowen with the Washburn School of Law reviews key highlights from the House Agriculture Committee’s latest farm bill proposal.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.