WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.
The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.
Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.
WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.
USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.
The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Escalating U.S.–China tensions threaten soybean demand as farm finances are stretched further.
October 13, 2025 10:40 AM
·
Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
October 09, 2025 05:10 PM
·
CoBank Lead Grains Economist Tanner Ehmke joins us to share insight and concerns over current grain storage capacity as export demand lags.
October 09, 2025 01:36 PM
·
October 09, 2025 11:36 AM
·
Considering raising your own replacements instead of buying bred heifers? Three key factors to consider before investing capital.
October 08, 2025 03:03 PM
·
Reliable, clearly graded middle meats still anchor demand; programs that deliver consistent eating quality and simple, confidence-building menus capture more repeat visits—and more value—back through the beef chain.
October 08, 2025 12:57 PM
·
