NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A new report from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute shows that Thanksgiving dinner is one of the few bright spots for food budgets this fall.
While grocery prices overall remain up 2.7 percent from a year ago, a traditional 10-person Thanksgiving meal is 2-3 percent cheaper than last year, thanks to lower turkey prices, aggressive retailer promotions, and national-brand competition with private-label products.
Wells Fargo’s analysis — led by Dr. Michael Swanson, Robin Wenzel, and Courtney Schmidt — places an all-private-label dinner at $80, while an all-national-brand basket reaches $95.
Turkey remains the most significant contributor to savings, with national-brand whole-bird prices down 3.7 percent from last year after producers and retailers aligned inventories early.
Frozen vegetables also delivered significant year-over-year declines for national brands, down 15 percent, even as private-label vegetables held steady. Other key meal components showed mixed movement: private-label dinner rolls fell 22 percent, gravy mix, stuffing, and fresh cranberries dropped 3–4 percent, and national-brand pumpkin pies eased 3 percent. Prepared mashed potatoes — a fast-growing convenience item — slipped 1.5 percent on strong supplies and brand-to-brand competition.
Most remaining items were flat or slightly higher. Prepackaged salad mix rose 0.3 percent, and whipping cream gained 3 percent, reflecting broader dairy trends. Beverage categories moved in different directions: beer is up 3 percent, wine is flat, and soft drinks split — 12-oz cans down 3 percent, but 2-liter bottles up 7 percent, though still roughly 31 percent cheaper per ounce than cans.
Overall, Wells Fargo says strategic brand choices give consumers unusual flexibility this year, keeping the cost of a full holiday meal at one of the most affordable points since inflation began accelerating.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Retail competition and improved supplies are helping offset food-inflation pressure, pushing Thanksgiving meal costs modestly lower despite higher prices in beef, eggs, and dairy.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
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