Boxed Beef Prices Surge Early on Tight Supplies

Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.

Spicy Beef Back Ribs_NCBA_19709441-g.jpeg

Photo by ricka_kinamoto via Adobe Stock

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Wholesale beef prices are moving higher earlier than normal this year, signaling tighter supplies and strong demand across cattle markets.

The Choice boxed beef cutout moved above $400 per hundredweight, up roughly $50 since the start of the year, according to analysis from Mississippi State University’s Josh Maples. The Select cutout also climbed sharply, reaching levels not seen since mid-2020. The spread between Choice and Select has remained narrow, indicating a limited premium for higher-grade cattle so far in 2026.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.
Ton St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Beef prices typically build gradually early in the year before peaking ahead of summer demand. This year’s move higher is happening sooner, reflecting tighter cattle supplies and reduced beef production. Buyers may also be stepping in earlier to secure product ahead of expected supply constraints later this spring.

Strength in Rib and Loin primals have driven much of the increase, with both cuts trending higher since mid-January and supporting the broader cutout. Firm boxed beef values continue to provide underlying support to fed cattle prices as the market moves toward peak seasonal demand.

Related Stories
Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller joins us to discuss the cattle herd rebuild, trade concerns, and how ranchers would define “America First” policy priorities.
In the U.S. and Canada, reduced planted acres—not yield losses—led to a decline in potato production, while Mexico saw modest gains due to increased yields and harvested areas.
AFBF Economist Samantha Ayoub discusses the latest data on Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings and what the troubling trend signals for the farm economy. At the same time, bigger loans and higher rates are squeezing working capital and increasing financial risk.
Corn demand remains supportive, but weaker soybean buying limits overall export momentum.
Chef and influencer Marcia Smart joined us to discuss Italian-inspired beef dishes, nutrition for active lifestyles, and how global events shape home cooking.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Falling livestock prices, combined with higher input costs, continue to squeeze farm profitability heading into 2026.
Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.
Record milk output looks strong today, but shrinking replacement numbers mean future supply adjustments could be faster and more volatile.
Often overlooked, cotton wholesalers act as stabilizers during market stress, translating fragmented retail demand into workable production programs for mills and manufacturers.
Strong blending demand continues to support ethanol use even as production and exports fluctuate.