LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — China’s new pledge to buy more U.S. agricultural products could support farm exports, but follow-through may be difficult. Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale says the White House commitment calls for China to buy $17 billion per year in non-soybean U.S. farm products, in addition to earlier soybean purchase commitments.
Those earlier commitments call for China to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually from 2026 through 2028, or roughly 919 million bushels per year.
Gale says the challenge is that China’s non-soybean ag purchases from the United States have fallen sharply since the Phase One years. Lower commodity prices, weak Chinese demand, and stronger competition from Brazil could limit the value of future purchases.
Beef access has improved after China renewed approvals for hundreds of U.S. facilities, but U.S. supplies remain tight, and China’s beef imports are dominated by Brazil.
The key questions are how China defines agriculture, how purchases are counted, and whether sales are converted into actual shipments.
Farm-Level Takeaway: China’s pledge is supportive, but producers need confirmed sales and shipments before counting it as stronger export demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Retail pricing confirms tight cattle supplies and supports continued leverage for producers, reinforcing the need for disciplined risk management.
January 07, 2026 06:00 PM
·
China continues to buy U.S. soybeans toward its 12 MMT commitment, as analysts cite data gaps, delivery timing questions, and muted market reaction.
January 07, 2026 11:50 AM
·
Seasonal boxed beef softness does not change the tight-supply outlook — leverage remains closer to the farm gate heading into 2026.
January 07, 2026 06:00 AM
·
Trade uncertainty—especially regarding soybeans—continues to weigh on future outlooks, even as farm finances and land values remain resilient.
January 06, 2026 03:09 PM
·
Strong export demand supports feed grain prices, but drought risk and seasonal patterns favor disciplined early-year marketing.
January 06, 2026 02:46 PM
·
Sen. Deb Fischer reintroduces the HAULS Act to update hours-of-service exemptions and definitions affecting livestock and agricultural haulers. She joins us on Market Day Report to share more about her proposed legislation.
January 06, 2026 01:28 PM
·
