LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — China’s new pledge to buy more U.S. agricultural products could support farm exports, but follow-through may be difficult. Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale says the White House commitment calls for China to buy $17 billion per year in non-soybean U.S. farm products, in addition to earlier soybean purchase commitments.
Those earlier commitments call for China to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually from 2026 through 2028, or roughly 919 million bushels per year.
Gale says the challenge is that China’s non-soybean ag purchases from the United States have fallen sharply since the Phase One years. Lower commodity prices, weak Chinese demand, and stronger competition from Brazil could limit the value of future purchases.
Beef access has improved after China renewed approvals for hundreds of U.S. facilities, but U.S. supplies remain tight, and China’s beef imports are dominated by Brazil.
The key questions are how China defines agriculture, how purchases are counted, and whether sales are converted into actual shipments.
Farm-Level Takeaway: China’s pledge is supportive, but producers need confirmed sales and shipments before counting it as stronger export demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
A massive rail merger could significantly impact North American agriculture and trade flows.
November 19, 2025 12:46 PM
·
Hunter Biram, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas, is tracking Mississippi River water levels as grain shippers shift their focus to transportation following the wrap-up of fall harvest.
November 18, 2025 01:24 PM
·
Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than usual this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
November 18, 2025 01:02 PM
·
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities shares an update on post-WASDE grain movement, with corn leading export momentum, soybeans steady, and wheat and sorghum continuing to move selectively.
November 18, 2025 12:20 PM
·
China still has a long way to go before it meets its commitment to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year.
November 18, 2025 11:23 AM
·
Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
November 17, 2025 01:24 PM
·
