Farm Bureau Economist: China Trade Shifts Keep Pressure on U.S. Farmers

China remains critical to U.S. farm exports, but Brazil’s growing market share keeps pressure on U.S. soybean demand.

farming taxes accounting money_adobe stock.png

Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — China remains one of the most important export markets for U.S. agriculture, but the relationship has become more uncertain. American Farm Bureau Federation economist Faith Parum says U.S. agricultural exports to China reached a record $40.9 billion in 2022, then fell to about $27 billion in 2024.

Soybeans remain the center of the relationship. AFBF says soybeans accounted for 47 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2024, underscoring how concentrated the market remains in a single commodity.

Brazil has captured more of China’s soybean demand. In 2010, the U.S. supplied 45 percent of China’s soybean imports, while Brazil supplied 32 percent. By 2024, Brazil’s share rose to 70 percent, while the U.S. fell to 23 percent.

AFBF says recent 2026 soybean sales to China have improved, but paper commitments still need to follow through.

For farmers, stable export demand matters as margins remain tight.

Farm-Level Takeaway: China remains critical to U.S. farm exports, but Brazil’s growing market share keeps pressure on U.S. soybean demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
New trade access, tariff concerns and international negotiations are reshaping the global beef market.
Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs joins us to discuss planting progress, weather conditions, and how geopolitical tensions are clouding his growing season outlook as input concerns continue to escalate.
Officials say no additional spread has been detected as containment and monitoring efforts move forward.
This case could influence how much leverage grain shippers have when a preferred rail outlet is blocked or priced too high.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Technology-driven lending decisions may shape the future availability of farm credit.
Logistics remain firm, but freight costs continue to rise.
Strong corn demand and cotton shipments support export outlook.
Fertilizer investigation may impact input costs and margins.
New research shows that most farmers do not have a formal resiliency plan in place. Devin Fuhrman highlights how Nationwide’s Farm Risk Ready initiative supports farmers in building stronger, more resilient operations.
Big oils-and-fats volumes can support crush demand, but fuel markets can quickly tighten supplies.