LEXINGTON, Ky. (RFD NEWS) — Southern crop prices are projected to be higher for 2026/27, but producers may still face tight margins and price risk before harvest. Hunter Biram with the University of Arkansas Extension’s Southern Risk Management Center says USDA’s May WASDE shows higher season-average prices for corn, soybeans, cotton, and long-grain rice.
Soybean production is forecast at 4.435 billion bushels, with ending stocks down to 310 million bushels. Corn production is projected at 16.0 billion bushels, with ending stocks falling to 1.957 billion.
Cotton production is expected to be 13.3 million bales, while ending stocks fall to 3.9 million bales. Long-grain rice production is projected at 122.5 million hundredweight, down 20 percent from last year.
Biram says projected prices are up 6 to 16 percent from 2025/26, led by long-grain rice and cotton. Still, breakeven yields remain above the USDA’s national yield expectations for corn, cotton, rice, and soybeans.
Historical patterns show new-crop prices often weaken into harvest, making risk management important.
Efforts to address high fertilizer prices were front and center this week as industry leaders testified before the Senate Agriculture Committee about the growing financial pressure facing farmers across the country.
Eddie Melton, president of the Kentucky Farm Bureau, joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report following his appearance before the committee to discuss the ongoing challenges tied to fertilizer affordability.
In his interview with RFD News, Melton discussed how rising fertilizer costs are forcing farmers to make difficult planting decisions, including adjustments to his own fifth-generation row-crop operation in Webster County, Kentucky. He emphasized that the fertilizer crisis has developed over several years, as producers continue facing pressure from elevated input costs, weak commodity prices, and tightening margins.
Melton also outlined the actions he believes Congress should prioritize, including immediate assistance for farmers, greater transparency in fertilizer markets, and stronger domestic fertilizer production capacity.
Finally, Melton shared an update on spring planting conditions in Kentucky and his outlook for the growing season currently underway.
Corey Rosenbusch with The Fertilizer Institute joined us to discuss supply chain disruptions and what farmers should watch as global tensions impact fertilizer markets.
