LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A proposal branded “Make America More Ground Beef” is being promoted to lower grocery-store prices, but the economics suggest its primary impact would fall elsewhere. Hyrum Egbert, author of The Big Bad Beef Packer newsletter, argues the plan functions less like consumer relief and more like a buyout-style support mechanism for dairies under margin pressure.
Proponents claim that diverting up to one million additional dairy-origin cattle to slaughter could add more than a billion pounds of lean trim and sharply reduce ground beef prices. Egbert notes that math does not hold up. Typical dairy cow yields translate to closer to 200 pounds of lean trim per head, not the 1,100 pounds implied, dramatically shrinking the potential supply boost.
Processing capacity also limits impact. Cow slaughter plants are already operating near normal levels, so pushing additional volume would take months and create regional bottlenecks rather than provide rapid retail relief. Meanwhile, ground beef markets naturally adjust through blending and import substitution, muting price effects.
Egbert concludes that the program would most clearly benefit dairy producers and, conditionally, cow packers, while taxpayers fund the transfer, and consumers see limited sustained relief.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Policies aimed at ground beef prices may primarily reshape dairy incentives rather than deliver lasting consumer savings.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) estimates that the move will save farmers and ranchers $2.5 billion each year. The group warns that new methods for calculating the adverse-effect wage rate would result in lower pay for foreign workers.
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