Mississippi River Decline Squeezes Grain Shipments and Basis Levels

Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Water levels along the Mississippi River have fallen to historic lows again this fall — throttling barge traffic and raising freight costs just as the Midwest harvest reaches full stride.

Gauges at St. Louis and Memphis are near record lows, forcing towboats to run lighter and with fewer barges per tow. For farmers moving corn and soybeans to export channels, that means slower flows, higher freight, and weaker local cash bids.

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) reports that the river depth at St. Louis recently dropped by more than 22 feet since midsummer, and levels near Memphis approached -5.5 feet, with forecasts of further decline. Southbound grain shipments have plunged roughly 79 percent since early harvest, and soybean movement fell nearly 90 percent as drafts were reduced. Barge costs have surged, erasing much of the price advantage Midwest farmers usually enjoy versus rail or Gulf competitors.

With the Mississippi handling nearly half of all U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat exports, exporters warn that the squeeze could open the door for Brazil and Argentina as the U.S. struggles to maintain its pace. Until rains return, producers face wider basis discounts, longer delivery windows, and mounting storage pressure heading into winter.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Related Stories
The September WASDE report comes out on Friday at Noon ET. As always, we’ll bring you those numbers right here on Market Day Report along with our expert
Let’s take a look at harvest progress as of early September 2025, across all 50 U.S. States, prepared by Market Day Report anchor and RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James.
Experts estimate the flooding from Hurricane Helene caused more than $1.3 billion in damage to Tennessee agriculture.
Pressure to lower gas prices across the Golden State could be the saving grace of this year’s corn harvest. California may soon be the final U.S. state to approve E-15 sales.
Both Congressional Ag Committees took up the bill over the summer, but there’s no word on when the Senate could move forward; it does expire on September 30.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Wed, 12/17/25 – 7:30 PM ET | 6:30 PM CT | 5:30 PM MT | 4:30 PM PT
Only properly documented, unexhausted fertilizer applied by prior owners may qualify for Section 180 expensing; broader nutrient-based claims carry significant legal and tax risk.
A massive rail merger could significantly impact North American agriculture and trade flows.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Earlier this year, the BLM moved to rescind the Public Lands Rule from the Biden Administration. Interior Secretary Doug Bergum says overturning the rule will protect the American way of life and give rural communities a stronger voice.
Lower turkey and wheat prices helped ease Thanksgiving costs, but underlying farm-sector pressures remain significant.