LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD News) — Tariffs are reshaping global apparel sourcing, but the expected shift back to North America has been slower than many cotton producers anticipated.
Robert Antoshak, managing partner of Gherzi Americas, says U.S. apparel sourcing is becoming more diversified rather than concentrated in the Western Hemisphere.
Through the first four months of 2026, USMCA suppliers accounted for 3.4 percent of U.S. apparel imports, up only slightly from 3.2 percent a year earlier. Meanwhile, imports from China and India declined sharply as production shifted toward countries including Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Egypt, and Turkey.
Mexico has gained a modest share of apparel manufacturing, but that does not automatically translate into stronger demand for U.S. cotton. The U.S. share of Mexico’s textile imports has declined while China’s share has grown, allowing Mexican factories to source more yarn and fabric outside the United States.
USDA still projects U.S. cotton exports at 12.3 million bales for the 2026-27 marketing year. However, Antoshak notes that the forecast depends more on stronger global mill demand than on evidence of a significant nearshoring boom across the Western Hemisphere.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Tariffs are changing apparel sourcing, but stronger cotton demand will depend more on global textile consumption than a rapid return of manufacturing to North America.
