WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — It is Day 15 of the federal government shutdown with seemingly no end in sight as disagreements over appropriations spiral into a third week. As time goes on, the effects are rippling further across the ag industry — impacting everyone from row crop growers to meat producers to ag economists alike.
Harvest Rolls On, Data Drops Off
While essential programs do remain functioning, such as food safety inspections, nutrition programs, and emergency assistance for natural disasters that have already occurred, many important functions of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) have halted, like the flow of essential crop data and reports like Crop Progress Reports, WASDE, and other trade data relied on throughout the harvest season.
Without government data, ag economy analysts tell us they are relying on private reports and other sources from groups like Bloomberg, as well as unofficial economic signals.
“They showed corn harvest is expected to be about 45% complete; soybeans should be around 60% complete; and winter wheat harvest is at 65,” said Brian Hoops with Midwest Marketing Solutions. “Now that’s in place of the USDA numbers. So, we’re just estimating where we would be for this time of year, normally.”
With record crops leaving fields, all that grain must go somewhere, and Hoops said grain storage is already a top priority for producers.
“I do think we have a lot of overrun this year -- a lot of crop that’s going to be stored,” Hoops explained. “Of course, a lot of it’s going to end up being sold because we just don’t have room for it on our on-farm storage. It gets taken into town and maybe converted into cash. Certainly, that’s going to weaken the basis and probably weigh on the futures as well. But then also you’ll have opportunities to re-own that back on paper if you choose.”
The WASDE report this month fell victim to the government shutdown, leaving no supply and demand data available for September. Hoops said private estimates show there likely would have been a reduction in corn yields if that data had been processed.
The next upcoming WASDE report is slated for release on November 10. However, there is no telling how the ongoing shutdown will impact that process.
Strong NOPA Crush, Higher Oil Stocks Complicate Outlook
With U.S. supplies still limited by trade tensions, Beijing may tap state reserves to keep crushers running.
The latest National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report shows a soybean crush of 186.3 million bushels, the fourth-highest monthly total on record. NOPA’s members account for nearly all U.S. processing capacity, so this figure is a good snapshot of processor demand. A crush this enormous during the harvest transition points to expanded plants and steady pulls for soybean meal and oil.
At the same time, soybean oil stocks were 1.243 billion pounds, above the average market estimate of 1.198 billion. Bigger-than-expected oil inventories suggest supply is a bit more ample than traders anticipated — whether due to stronger crush, slower offtake into food and fuel channels, or timing around new capacity — even as meal demand looks firm.
For markets, that mix usually means supportive crush margins but a watch-list for product pricing. Meal strength can aid bids near processors, while heavier oil stocks can pressure soybean-oil values and influence board crush, basis, and renewable diesel economics until draws improve.
Traders say buyers are waiting for new South American harvests early next year to ease prices. Brazilian farmers are on track to harvest a record 178 million tons of soybeans this season, about 6 million more than last year. Planting is ahead of schedule in key states like Parana and Mato Grosso, and early planting could help farmers fit in second corn crops later.
U.S. Meat Exporters Seek New Markets in Europe
The strain on the ag economy is not limited to commodity growers. The U.S. meat industry is also looking for new export markets across Europe as countries like Mexico and Brazil compete for increasing market share.
The pork industry is no stranger to tough times in the last few years. While the situation has improved, Lori Stevermer, former president of the National Pork Producers Council major group, says overall challenges remain.
“I would say these are some interesting and challenging times for our farm economy,” Stevermer said. “If you look at the grain sector, they’ve got high input costs and low market prices, so they are feeling some losses and not profitability. It’s the opposite, I should say, for the pork industry. Our inputs are low, our market prices are good -- and so we are seeing some profitability. But you have to recall that back in 2023 and 2024, we went through some pretty severe losses, too. I think that makes it, overall, a challenge for agriculture.”
The pork industry says younger producers can take steps to stay protected. They encourage everyone to rely on sound business practices and have good risk management strategies.
Incoming leadership with the U.S. Meat Export Federation is hitting the ground running, just returning from a trade mission to the United Kingdom. The delegation met with farmers, importers, and trade officials to discuss the new framework recently announced by the Trump Administration.
“I was part of the delegation where I went over with the governor of Idaho, who’s a rancher himself, and talked about the new trade deal,” said Jay Theiler, Chair-Elect of the U.S. Meat Export Federation. “Talked a lot about the beef deal, but we also realized that there are some opportunities for pork, obviously, if they can work out some of the details on that, where the UK is taking a lot of pork from the European Union right now. So I think it’s in the range of between $2 and $3 billion, so there’s an opportunity for pork, and certainly there’s an opportunity for beef if we can get duty-free access to the British market.”
According to Theiler, while there is strong potential for both U.S. beef and pork in the UK, lingering non-tariff barriers still need to be addressed.
“They’ve been aligned with the EU for so long, and they’re so dependent on import and export with the European Union that we’re not sure what exactly those requirements are going to be,” he explained. “But there are a lot of other access issues that are creating friction that we hope we can see some movement on. Some of the phytosanitary regulations and labeling.”
According to Theiler, meat exports to the UK are still labeled as if they are part of the EU, which adds extra regulations, such as individually labeling each piece in eight different languages, creating more barriers for exports.
“There are a lot of things like that — that make the trade more difficult — so hopefully we can work some of those things out,” he said.
In June, the UK opened a duty-free tariff rate quota for U.S. beef, with a 2025 volume of about 85-hundred metric tons. The country is currently a large pork importer, purchasing nearly $3 billion worth of U.S. pork in 2024. Almost all of it is EU pork, which enters the country tariff-free.
