URBANA, Ill. (RFD-TV) — Grain farms are coming off their weakest income year in decades. Still, they are not yet facing a 1980s-style crisis, according to a new farmdoc daily analysis from the University of Illinois. Using Illinois Farm Business Farm Management data back to the 1990s, economists show 2024 farm operating income averaged a loss of $15,000, the lowest on record, after peaking at $339,000 in 2022.
Low prices and stubborn costs pushed the operating expense ratio to 0.83 in 2024, meaning operating costs consumed 83% of gross returns — the highest since 1990. Yet most farms ended 2024 with solid balance sheets: average working capital was $372,000, the current ratio was 2.47, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 0.187, which is still considered very strong.
The authors warn that another year or two of weak profitability will erode that strength. Without higher grain prices, farms will need to reduce high input costs — fertilizer, seed, pesticides, and, especially, cash rent. Younger, heavily rented operations face the most pressure, even as ad hoc payments temporarily cushion returns.
Compared with the 1980s, the study notes lower leverage, stronger financial monitoring, and more conservative borrowing, which together make a broad bankruptcy wave unlikely. Instead, lenders are expected to tighten credit, forcing cost adjustments and, in some cases, orderly exits.
Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.
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The WASDE/Crop Production combo will be the first full read on supply, demand, and yield that could move basis and hedging plans since the government shutdown more than a month ago.
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A rescheduled WASDE, China’s soybean squeeze, barge bottlenecks, and premium beef demand all collide this week — with cash decisions, basis, and risk plans on the line.
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China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
November 02, 2025 05:06 AM
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High milk production and soft retail demand are squeezing prices and margins — making careful feed and risk management essential through year-end.
November 01, 2025 06:54 AM
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October 31, 2025 01:30 PM
Market analyst and friend of the show, Shawn Hackett, says Brazil’s shifting use of crops for biofuel production is a significant factor.
October 31, 2025 01:17 PM
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Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), shares his reaction to news of soybean sales to China, which is considered both “welcome news” and a return to near-normal trade relations.
October 31, 2025 12:26 PM
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Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
October 31, 2025 11:44 AM
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