NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best.
Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light.
With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
Farmers may benefit from higher turkey prices this holiday season, but risks from HPAI and limited poult placements could further strain the supply.
September 23, 2025 10:35 AM
·
September 23, 2025 09:42 AM
·
According to the most recent version of the Household Food Security Report for 2022-2023, food insecurity is on the rise in the U.S.
September 22, 2025 01:49 PM
·
USMEF CEO Dan Halstrom joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report for his analysis on the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement, which includes big bucks for U.S. Beef.
September 22, 2025 12:30 PM
·
Record U.S. sorghum crop faces weak demand as China slashes imports, while corn farmers warn of rising costs, shrinking margins, and global market pressures.
September 22, 2025 11:46 AM
·
Fewer cattle on feed suggest smaller slaughter numbers this winter, which could support strong prices if beef demand holds firm.
September 22, 2025 11:10 AM
·
Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.
September 22, 2025 10:52 AM
·
With the latest detection just across the border, animal health officials on both sides are intensifying efforts to contain the outbreak before it spreads further north.
September 22, 2025 09:51 AM
·
The USDA NASS report also confirms lower August placements.
September 19, 2025 03:36 PM
·
