NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — A likely delay in the planned meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is shifting attention back to ongoing trade negotiations, with agriculture remaining a central focus for U.S. producers watching export demand signals.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in Paris to advance trade discussions ahead of the expected summit. Officials indicated talks included agriculture, trade balance, and supply chain issues, with China signaling openness to additional purchases of U.S. farm products, though no formal commitments were announced.
Operationally, the delay appears tied to geopolitical factors, including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, rather than a breakdown in trade negotiations. For agricultural markets, that suggests trade talks remain active even as the leaders’ meeting timeline shifts.
Regionally, China remains a key buyer of U.S. agricultural exports, and shifts in Chinese purchasing patterns continue to influence grain and livestock markets across the Midwest and Plains. Export-dependent sectors, particularly soybeans and protein markets, are closely tied to developments in U.S.–China trade relations.
Looking ahead, markets will watch whether ongoing negotiations translate into concrete buying activity later this year, as global logistics disruptions and policy uncertainty continue to shape export opportunities.
The soybean markets began the week with a big sell-off. The war with Iran is helping drive some of that action, but the folks at Allendale tell us there are other factors at play.
“Of course, Iran was one of those recent legs,” says Allendale’s Rich Nelson. “The second discussion is biofuel policy, which is still to be announced. The first leg, though, was the expectations and hopes that China would buy a second round of old crop U.S. soybeans. Latest discussion out of the preliminary talks with China right now over the weekend and this morning indicates maybe ag purchases that could mean corn, could mean wheat, but they did not say soybeans. So, a little concern perhaps that there may not be a second round of soybean buyings in these weeks ahead.”
China is currently on the hook for 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year, but that deal was never put in writing last fall. President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the month, but the White House now says the meeting could be delayed.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney told RFD NEWS on Monday that the gathering will be critical for American farmers.
“The meeting happening will bring some calmness to the situation, [and] will be seen as an encouraging step here in things maybe settling down a little bit,” Haney said. “And who has the leverage? Well, we really don’t know. I’ve heard analysts arguing that President Trump has the leverage with China regarding Iran, and I’ve heard vice versa. From a U.S. farmer’s perspective, looking for this meeting to also present an increase in exports. As I mentioned, soybeans are top of mind; trying to get a bit firmer understanding. Will we see an increase in that 25 million metric ton commitment that China talked about back in the fall?”
As of now, President Trump is set to meet with President Xi in two weeks. The White House warned this week that the meeting could be delayed as the president navigates the war with Iran from Washington, D.C. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC this week that any delays are due to current events, not disagreements over the Strait of Hormuz.
The planned Trump-Xi summit in China could face delays due to scheduling logistics related to Iran. Haney says the timing of the meeting matters for global agriculture.
“Agriculture looking to expand exports to China, but in the very, very short term, is this meeting critical to China and the U.S. cooperating on getting the Strait of Hormuz back to some sort of sense of normalcy?” Haney explains. “Of course, we’re seeing higher diesel prices here in the short term. There’s been a lot of talk about higher fertilizer prices. China is behind the Strait of Hormuz. In the sense of energy-sourcing needs, they do require this strait to be reopened, which President Trump has been talking about. China is one of the countries he has mentioned to step up here and assist the U.S. in getting the Strait reopened. At the same time, though, China and other countries haven’t necessarily been waving their hands in the air saying, ‘Hey, we’re here to help,’ and so time is critical for farmers here. Whether the meeting happens or not, we need the Strait reopened.”
Despite questions surrounding the summit, Haney says discussions between the U.S. and Chinese officials on agricultural purchases are ongoing. Key commodities that could be affected include soybeans, corn, and pork, all of which have historically been central to trade negotiations between the two countries.
Middle East Tensions Shock Farm Inputs Like Fertilizer and Fuel
Tensions in the Middle East continue to put pressure on the fertilizer market. As planting season kicks off, Dr. Michael DeLiberto, an economist with the LSU AgCenter, is sounding the alarm on whether there will be enough supply and how high prices could climb.
“Now, Iran holds some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves, and natural gas is the key feedstock used to produce ammonia, which is the foundational input for most nitrogen fertilizers. And urea accounts for about 46% nitrogen,” DeLiberto explains. “Mainly, it’s the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertilizer. So the Middle East is an important hub for nitrogen fertilizer. Countries that are exposed to the disruption in that region account for about 49% of global urea exports and about 30% of global ammonia exports, reflecting the concentration of fertilizer production and export capacity that we’re seeing in the Persian Gulf region right now.”
The Fertilizer Institute says 65 percent of U.S. farmers get most of their fertilizer through domestic sources. It’s that other 35 percent that causes problems.
“The rest is going to come from imports, which have been increasing due to the global uncertainty that we’re seeing right now,” DeLiberto says. “Fertilizer markets are very much globally integrated, so supply disruptions in one region of the world can influence prices and availability elsewhere. The U.S. relies on both domestic production and imports to meet fertilizer demand. Now, the import exposure in our U.S. market will vary by nutrient. Roughly 97% of potassium, 18% of nitrogen, and about 13% of phosphate are imported. So that import exposure increases sensitivity to these trade disruptions, particularly during seasonal demand peaks.”
Oil is also feeling the pinch. The Trump Administration is working to keep fuel shipments running through key global shipping lanes. During a lunch with the Trump Kennedy Center board members on Monday, President Trump was asked about China’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil and cooperation on securing the Strait of Hormuz.
“China is a great example. They get 91% of their oil from the harmless Straits, which we’ve protected for years, and it always bothered me that we have these countries. Japan gets 95% of its oil from the Straits of Hormuz, and it always bothered me that we’re protecting and we don’t need them. We didn’t need them before we started [to] dig.”
Trump said America does not need the oil in Iran, and we no longer need to protect the Strait of Hormuz for other countries.
“We don’t need oil. We have all the oil we need for ourselves,” Trump said. “It’s one of the great assets that we have. We have double, more than double what anybody else in terms of oil production, with more than double any other country. So, we don’t need it. But because we did it, you could almost say we did it out of habit, which is not a good thing. Because we have some good allies there. We have some great Middle Eastern countries there, Israel there. So, we did it for a lot of reasons. But it always amazes me that we did it. We never asked for reimbursement, and it was really there to serve other countries, not us.”
Continued unrest in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are straining the global supply chain, creating uncertainty for agriculture as farmers and grain elevators prepare for the busy spring season. Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to share his outlook on the situation.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, Steenhoek explained that global supply chains depend on predictability and stability, both of which are being challenged by ongoing geopolitical disruptions. When key shipping routes are impacted, it creates uncertainty that can quickly ripple through commodity and input markets.
One of the most immediate effects has been rising fuel costs, which directly impact farmers and grain elevators through higher transportation and operating expenses. Steenhoek noted that increased diesel prices can reduce margins and raise the cost of moving grain from farm to market.
There are also concerns surrounding fertilizer supplies, as global shipping disruptions may affect availability and pricing. Steenhoek said that any constraints on fertilizer could further complicate decision-making for producers already operating on tight margins and volatile markets.
Even if tensions ease in the near term, Steenhoek cautioned that supply chains may take time to stabilize as markets adjust and shipping routes reopen. In the meantime, the uncertainty could influence planting decisions, with some producers potentially adjusting acreage or input use based on availability and cost.
Looking ahead, Steenhoek encouraged farmers to closely monitor energy markets, transportation logistics, and global developments. He emphasized the importance of staying flexible and informed as the situation evolves.
