Tyson Signals Diverging Protein Outlook for 2026 as Global Meat Prices Dip

Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.

19297661-g.jpeg

Tyson Foods

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) Global meat prices edged lower in January, slipping four-tenths of a percent, according to new data from the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 123.9 points, down slightly from December, though still more than 6 percent higher than a year ago. Falling pork prices led the decline, as strong hog supplies in the European Union and softer global demand weighed on the market.

Poultry prices rose on stronger demand from Brazil, while beef and sheep meat remained largely stable. Overall, global food prices also dipped for a fifth straight month.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Tyson Foods reported mixed first-quarter results for fiscal 2026, with strong demand in chicken and prepared foods offset by ongoing pressure in beef. The company said shifting protein supplies and tighter cattle inventories will shape market conditions through the year.

Tyson posted first-quarter sales of $14.3 billion, up just over 5 percent from a year earlier, while adjusted operating income declined as beef losses weighed on overall margins. Management said chicken volumes posted their fifth straight quarter of year-over-year gains, reflecting continued consumer demand and market share expansion.

Looking ahead, Tyson expects beef production to fall by about 2 percent in 2026, leading to an operating loss of $250 million to $500 million for the segment as cattle supplies remain tight. Pork production is projected to increase by about 2 percent, with operating income expected to be between $250 million and $300 million. Chicken remains the strongest performer, with Tyson projecting operating income of $1.65 billion to $1.9 billion on modest production growth.

The company expects higher government data to show that overall U.S. protein output will rise by about a percent in 2026, while Tyson focuses on execution, cost control, and capital discipline.

Related Stories
“We’re now at again another record high, $221.51 per hundredweight for steers for 2025.”
This quirky twist on Southern potato salad (without potatoes) skips the spuds but keeps all the flavor! You’ll love this classic Justin Wilson recipe.
Stuffed with garlic, peppers, and good ol’ Cajun flavor, this pork roast is so tender it’ll fall off the bone before you can say, “I gar-on-tee!”
Slow-simmered Cajun beans cooked in corned beef stock for rich, Southern flavor—just like Justin Wilson used to make.
A rich, flavorful stock made by simmering corned beef with Cajun seasonings. Justin Wilson’s Eazy Corned Beef Stock recipe adds depth to beans, stews, and classic Southern dishes.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Friday’s release will be the first WASDE report in about two months, and early estimates indicate a corn surplus is still on the way.
Tyson expects another year of beef-segment losses due to tight cattle supplies, even as chicken, pork, and prepared foods strengthen overall margins.
Export strength is concentrated in corn and wheat, while soybeans and sorghum lag, keeping basis and logistics dynamics highly commodity-specific into late fall.
Pasture, Rangeland and Forage (PRF) interval selection—not just participation—drives protection levels as rainfall patterns become less predictable across the South.
If the House concurs and the President signs, USDA services and farm-bill programs resume at full speed with authorities extended for another year.
A smaller U.S. turkey flock and resurgent avian flu have tightened supplies, driving prices higher even as other key holiday foods show mixed trends.