LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Uncertainty is shaping the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade in 2026 as tariffs and shifting trade relationships continue to disrupt long-established export patterns. Luis Ribera, director of the Center for North American Studies, says trade policy volatility has become a defining feature of the farm economy heading into the new year.
USDA projects U.S. agricultural exports to fall to $173 billion in 2026, the lowest level since 2021. That decline reflects both lower volumes and weaker values, driven primarily by reduced soybean and sorghum shipments to China. Ribera notes China has increasingly sourced those commodities from Brazil and Argentina as tariffs have altered relative prices and trade flows.
While U.S. exports to markets such as the European Union, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam have grown, those gains have not fully offset losses tied to China. As a result, overall export momentum remains fragile.
On the import side, U.S. agricultural imports are expected to peak at approximately $219 billion in 2025, then ease in 2026. Lower volumes of horticultural products and vegetable oils are projected, though higher prices for coffee and cocoa continue to lift import values. Ribera says recently announced tariff exemptions on select agricultural goods could help temper consumer food costs, but uncertainty remains elevated.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland shares the soybean sector outlook following the announcement of farm aid to offset losses for U.S. row crop growers.
December 10, 2025 11:33 AM
·
December 10, 2025 11:03 AM
Stable U.S. fundamentals continue for major crops, but global adjustments in corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton may influence early-2026 pricing.
December 10, 2025 10:31 AM
·
Sen. Moran joins us to discuss the farm aid package and the financial reality faced by row crop farmers in his home state of Kansas.
December 09, 2025 02:47 PM
·
Corn and wheat exports continue to outperform last year, while soybeans show steady but subdued movement compared to 2024.
December 09, 2025 12:14 PM
·
Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
December 09, 2025 11:55 AM
·
Grain farms still have strong balance sheets, but another stretch of low profits will force hard cost cuts, especially on high-rent, highly leveraged operations.
December 09, 2025 11:41 AM
·
Mold damage is tightening China’s corn supplies, supporting higher prices and creating potential demand for alternative feed grains in early 2026.
December 09, 2025 07:00 AM
·
The new rule removes prevented-plant buy-up coverage, prompting strong objections from farm groups concerned about added risk exposure.
December 09, 2025 05:00 AM
·
