NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — All eyes are now on the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for March, released midday Tuesday, leaving key U.S. grain balance sheets largely unchanged but still offering few surprises for markets.
Overall, analysts say the March report was largely neutral for markets, with limited adjustments to domestic supply forecasts and only modest changes to global production estimates.
WASDE Report Shows Mostly Steady Global Crop Outlook
USDA’s March WASDE report shows mostly steady U.S. supply and demand projections across major crops, with modest price adjustments and shifting global balances shaping the outlook for 2025/26.
For wheat, USDA made no changes to U.S. supply and use but raised the season-average farm price 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel. Globally, supplies and consumption increased slightly, while ending stocks were trimmed modestly though still remain at a five-year high.
The U.S. corn outlook was unchanged from last month, with the season-average price holding at $4.10 per bushel. Globally, coarse grain production increased on larger crops in Ukraine and Brazil, partially offset by reduced output in Argentina, while global corn ending stocks rose to 292.8 million tons.
In oilseeds, the USDA raised soybean imports and crush but left ending stocks unchanged at 350 million bushels. The soybean price outlook held at $10.20 per bushel, while soybean meal prices rose and soybean oil prices edged higher.
Cotton projections were unchanged domestically, with no revisions to the U.S. balance sheet or price outlook. Globally, production increased more than 1.1 million bales on larger crops in Brazil and China, partially offset by reduced output in Argentina. World consumption declined slightly, trade increased modestly on stronger imports by India, and ending stocks rose to 76.4 million bales, lifting the global stocks-to-use ratio to 64 percent.
Beef Tightens, Pork Firms, Dairy Outlook Improves Further
The USDA’s latest WASDE projects mixed livestock fundamentals for 2026, with tighter beef supplies, steady pork production and improving dairy returns shaping the outlook.
Beef production is forecast lower on a slower-than-expected pace of slaughter through early March, partly offset by heavier dressed weights. Beef exports are reduced for the first half of the year, while imports are raised as tighter domestic supplies draw additional shipments from global exporters. Cattle price forecasts are increased through the first three quarters on continued strong fed cattle demand.
Pork production is unchanged, but export forecasts are raised for the year on stronger demand, particularly from East Asia and Western Hemisphere markets. Hog prices are also lifted on recent strength and expectations for continued firm demand, with updated supply direction expected later this month in USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.
In dairy, the USDA raised its 2026 milk production forecast as herd expansion offsets slower per-cow output gains. Higher forecasts for cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk pushed the all-milk price outlook up to $19.70 per hundredweight.
The next WASDE update is scheduled for April 9.
Shaun Haney joined RFD News to discuss the potential impact of the Trump-Xi summit uncertainty, ongoing agricultural trade talks, and why geopolitical developments could carry important implications for farmers and global commodity markets.
