WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) for December from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects higher 2025 beef production and lower cattle prices as slaughter runs above expectations and carcass weights trend heavier.
Beef imports for 2025 are expected to be lower based on trade data to date, but are projected to increase in 2026 as tariff changes improve access for key suppliers. Beef exports are trimmed for both years, reflecting softer demand in major markets.
Hog sector projections shift modestly lower for 2025, with reduced slaughter pulling production down and pressuring late-year prices. Pork exports are expected to be lower this year but to rebound in 2026 as global demand improves.
Dairy outlooks are mixed. Milk production is unchanged in 2025 but lower in 2026, as smaller cow inventories offset productivity gains. Butter remains competitive in global markets, supporting export gains, while cheese prices weaken amid soft domestic demand. The all-milk price is cut to $21.00 per cwt for 2025 and $18.75 for 2026.
In the poultry sector, broiler production rose on earlier-year gains, but turkey output drops due to HPAI culling, and egg forecasts remain steady.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
The idea of buying more beef from Argentina does not sit well with much of farm country, raising some questions from analysts and producers.
October 28, 2025 01:20 PM
·
The President’s trip to Asia this week follows a trade mission by the Iowa Soybean Association. Farmers say they were reminded that U.S. soybeans have an international reputation that can be easy to take for granted here at home.
October 28, 2025 11:28 AM
·
Harvest Marches on as River Logistics And Inputs Steer Bids
October 27, 2025 04:09 PM
·
John Appel with the Farmers Business Network (FBN) joins us for a closer look at the 2026 Crop Protection Market Outlook Report.
October 27, 2025 01:00 PM
·
Imported lean beef continues to play a critical role in U.S. hamburger and ground-beef production, with any added volume from Argentina serving as a supplement — not a market overhaul.
October 27, 2025 11:51 AM
·
A fast-moving series of trade signals from the White House and key partners is resetting the near-term outlook for U.S. agriculture.
October 27, 2025 11:41 AM
·
Stay alert for trade announcements—especially border reopening timelines, tariff threats, and developments in Brazil’s export flows.
October 24, 2025 01:56 PM
·
For aging operators and their rural neighbors, staying socially engaged is a practical strategy to preserve decision-making capacity and farm vitality.
October 24, 2025 01:37 PM
·
R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard joins Market Day Report for his insight on the USDA’s plan to strengthen the U.S. beef industry.
October 24, 2025 01:28 PM
·
