USDA Lowers Cattle Prices as Beef Output Rises

Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.

beef cattle.jpg

Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) for December from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects higher 2025 beef production and lower cattle prices as slaughter runs above expectations and carcass weights trend heavier.

Beef imports for 2025 are expected to be lower based on trade data to date, but are projected to increase in 2026 as tariff changes improve access for key suppliers. Beef exports are trimmed for both years, reflecting softer demand in major markets.

Hog sector projections shift modestly lower for 2025, with reduced slaughter pulling production down and pressuring late-year prices. Pork exports are expected to be lower this year but to rebound in 2026 as global demand improves.

Dairy outlooks are mixed. Milk production is unchanged in 2025 but lower in 2026, as smaller cow inventories offset productivity gains. Butter remains competitive in global markets, supporting export gains, while cheese prices weaken amid soft domestic demand. The all-milk price is cut to $21.00 per cwt for 2025 and $18.75 for 2026.

In the poultry sector, broiler production rose on earlier-year gains, but turkey output drops due to HPAI culling, and egg forecasts remain steady.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
The U.S. Meat Export Federation plans to expand its global market presence in the New Year and says it is focusing its appeal on the growing middle class worldwide.
New World Screwworm cases in Mexico, including one within 200 miles of the U.S. border, are adding pressure to livestock markets and trade decisions.
Preserving equity through active risk management remains critical in a volatile, supply-driven market.
USDA data indicates that 13.7 percent of U.S. households experienced food insecurity in 2024, the highest rate since 2014, even as most households remained food secure.
Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions
Bigger cows must wean proportionally heavier calves to justify higher ownership costs.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

China’s pullback is hitting core U.S. commodities hard, reshaping export expectations for soybeans, cotton, grains, and livestock.
Slower grain movement may pressure basis, but falling diesel prices could help offset transportation costs.
Regional differences indicate that family ownership is universal, but farm structure and commodity mix determine the extent to which these operations drive agricultural output.
A new study found that retaining the EPA’s half-RIN credit protects soybean demand, farm income, and crushing-sector strength while preserving biofuel market flexibility.
Rising federal debt is increasing pressure on Washington to limit spending, which could tighten future funding and delivery for agricultural programs.
Freight Softens as Producers Plan 2026 Budgets Nationwide