USDA Lowers Cattle Prices as Beef Output Rises

Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.

beef cattle.jpg

Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) for December from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects higher 2025 beef production and lower cattle prices as slaughter runs above expectations and carcass weights trend heavier.

Beef imports for 2025 are expected to be lower based on trade data to date, but are projected to increase in 2026 as tariff changes improve access for key suppliers. Beef exports are trimmed for both years, reflecting softer demand in major markets.

Hog sector projections shift modestly lower for 2025, with reduced slaughter pulling production down and pressuring late-year prices. Pork exports are expected to be lower this year but to rebound in 2026 as global demand improves.

Dairy outlooks are mixed. Milk production is unchanged in 2025 but lower in 2026, as smaller cow inventories offset productivity gains. Butter remains competitive in global markets, supporting export gains, while cheese prices weaken amid soft domestic demand. The all-milk price is cut to $21.00 per cwt for 2025 and $18.75 for 2026.

In the poultry sector, broiler production rose on earlier-year gains, but turkey output drops due to HPAI culling, and egg forecasts remain steady.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Wed, 6/4/25 – 7:30 PM ET | 6:30 PM CT | 5:30 PM MT | 4:30 PM PT
Lean Ground Beef, fresh parsley, and cumin are formed into meatballs and served in flatbreads for a light and fresh summer main dish.
These Easy Roast Beef Sliders are perfect for potlucks and parties, or a quick and easy dinner main dish you can prepare in advance. Thinly sliced Deli Roast Beef is sandwiched between rolls and baked with cheese until golden and delicious.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Weather-driven transportation disruptions can tighten logistics, affect basis levels, and delay grain movement during winter months.
Lower milk prices may pressure margins, but strong cattle values could soften near-term financial impacts.
A new maritime biofuels coalition aims to position ocean shipping as a significant growth market for U.S. crops and waste-derived fuels.
Larger operations maintain cost advantages, while softer equipment sales suggest producers are pacing machinery upgrades amid tighter margins.
Transportation access, legal disputes, and fertilizer freight costs will directly influence input pricing and grain movement in 2026.
Corn and wheat exports remain supportive, but weaker soybean demand — especially from China — continues to pressure oilseed markets.