LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — China’s new pledge to buy more U.S. agricultural products could support farm exports, but follow-through may be difficult. Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale says the White House commitment calls for China to buy $17 billion per year in non-soybean U.S. farm products, in addition to earlier soybean purchase commitments.
Those earlier commitments call for China to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually from 2026 through 2028, or roughly 919 million bushels per year.
Gale says the challenge is that China’s non-soybean ag purchases from the United States have fallen sharply since the Phase One years. Lower commodity prices, weak Chinese demand, and stronger competition from Brazil could limit the value of future purchases.
Beef access has improved after China renewed approvals for hundreds of U.S. facilities, but U.S. supplies remain tight, and China’s beef imports are dominated by Brazil.
The key questions are how China defines agriculture, how purchases are counted, and whether sales are converted into actual shipments.
Farm-Level Takeaway: China’s pledge is supportive, but producers need confirmed sales and shipments before counting it as stronger export demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Strong rail and ocean demand support grain movement, but weak barge traffic and high diesel costs keep freight pressure elevated.
Corn exports remained active the week of May 7, but weak soybean, cotton, and sorghum sales kept attention on China and late-year demand.
Higher food costs are showing up beyond the grocery aisle, with some major restaurant chains shrinking their U.S. footprint.
Dave Walton with the American Soybean Association joins us to discuss China’s new ag purchase commitments, E15 policy concerns, and spring planting conditions.
Jenna Stanton with the United States Cattlemen’s Association joins us to discuss beef import concerns, cattle market signals, and the latest developments surrounding U.S. beef trade.
RealAg Radio Host Shaun Haney joins us to discuss the latest U.S.-China ag trade agreements, market reaction, and what producers should watch moving forward.
