LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — China’s new pledge to buy more U.S. agricultural products could support farm exports, but follow-through may be difficult. Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale says the White House commitment calls for China to buy $17 billion per year in non-soybean U.S. farm products, in addition to earlier soybean purchase commitments.
Those earlier commitments call for China to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually from 2026 through 2028, or roughly 919 million bushels per year.
Gale says the challenge is that China’s non-soybean ag purchases from the United States have fallen sharply since the Phase One years. Lower commodity prices, weak Chinese demand, and stronger competition from Brazil could limit the value of future purchases.
Beef access has improved after China renewed approvals for hundreds of U.S. facilities, but U.S. supplies remain tight, and China’s beef imports are dominated by Brazil.
The key questions are how China defines agriculture, how purchases are counted, and whether sales are converted into actual shipments.
Farm-Level Takeaway: China’s pledge is supportive, but producers need confirmed sales and shipments before counting it as stronger export demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Higher rail tariffs and tighter Canadian supplies will keep oat transportation costs firm into 2026.
November 24, 2025 11:22 AM
·
Tyson’s closure reflects deep supply shortages in the U.S. cattle industry, tightening packing capacity, weakening competition, and signaling more volatility ahead for cow-calf producers and feedyards.
November 21, 2025 07:02 PM
·
Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition discusses industry reactions to the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger, the Surface Transportation Board’s review process, and current conditions on the Mississippi River.
November 21, 2025 01:59 PM
·
Lower tariff rates and new rail-service proposals may improve corn movement efficiency during early-season marketing.
November 21, 2025 12:01 PM
·
Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
November 21, 2025 10:30 AM
·
Row crop losses in 2025 are outpacing last year. With no disaster aid yet approved, many operations face a tough financial bridge to 2026 even as Farm Bill improvements remain a year away.
November 20, 2025 05:00 PM
·
