KANSAS CITY, Mo. (RFD News) — Irrigated farmland remains more valuable than dryland, but groundwater depletion could test how long that premium holds across the High Plains.
Kansas City Fed economist Ayesha Cooray says irrigation helps producers manage drought, heat stress, and yield risk. That reliability has pushed irrigated land values higher across the Tenth District.
The premium has grown faster during droughts, reflecting the value of secure water access when moisture is scarce. But the long-term outlook depends on aquifer reserves, recharge rates, groundwater rules, and continued gains in water-use efficiency.
The risks are not evenly spread. Nebraska has ample groundwater reserves, while Kansas faces large but declining reserves. Oklahoma and New Mexico face greater pressure where depletion is advanced and recharge is limited.
Irrigation technology and drought-tolerant seed have helped producers grow more corn with less water. Even so, future land values may depend on how much water remains below the farm.
