NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global crop and livestock markets are settling into more balanced conditions after the volatility of recent years, according to the 2025 International Baseline Update from FAPRI–MU. Following record highs in 2022, global cereals and oilseeds prices have fallen on strong harvests and steady productivity gains. For 2025/26, most grain prices sit below last year’s levels, while oilseed and biofuel prices are seeing mild support from feedstock demand.
Projections assume stable policy, average weather, and moderate global growth. Price recovery is expected beyond 2026, but levels remain well below the 2022 peaks. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on outlooks — particularly for soybeans — as no new U.S.–China agreement has been reached. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s grain exports are gradually rebounding despite reduced acreage, and Brazil’s crop growth continues to outpace much of the world. Dairy prices are trending higher in the long term, with slower expansion in the EU and Oceania due to environmental constraints.
Livestock markets reflect regional divergence: China’s demand for beef and pork is rising, while the U.S. expands dairy and beef exports. Biofuels also remain a bright spot, led by U.S. biomass-based diesel and Brazil’s ethanol program. Overall, productivity gains and slower population growth point to flat real prices through the decade — signaling stability, but limited upside for global farm revenues.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Crop producers face tightening credit and lower incomes, while strong cattle markets continue to stabilize finances in livestock-heavy regions.
November 21, 2025 11:58 AM
·
Early Cattle-on-Feed estimates point to slightly tighter cattle supplies, reinforcing the need to monitor prices and timing for winter marketing.
November 21, 2025 10:45 AM
·
Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
November 21, 2025 10:30 AM
·
Experts say farmers and ethanol producers would benefit from a risk-based ILUC system that protects forests without relying on speculative modeling.
November 20, 2025 04:24 PM
·
CattleCon 2026 kicks off February 3 in Nashville. Kristin Torres with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association joined RFD-TV to share more about what’s ahead at this year’s event.
November 20, 2025 01:32 PM
·
Ethanol exports are expanding on strong demand from Canada and Europe, while DDGS shipments remain broad-based and supportive for feed markets.
November 20, 2025 11:12 AM
·
Mary-Thomas Hart, with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, discusses the latest WOTUS developments and their implications for agriculture.
November 19, 2025 03:05 PM
·
A massive rail merger could significantly impact North American agriculture and trade flows.
November 19, 2025 12:46 PM
·
Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.
November 18, 2025 03:02 PM
·
