FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA (RFD News) — A new analysis from North Dakota State University is modeling how fertilizer prices could respond to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The study outlines three possible scenarios, including a quick reopening of shipping routes, continued contested transit, and an extended disruption through the fall.
Under the central scenario, urea prices could peak near $784 per ton by mid-2026, while DAP could rise above $860 later in the year.
Even under the most optimistic scenario, the analysis projects prices would remain above pre-crisis levels through at least 2027.
The report also notes differences between crop prices and input costs that could impact overall affordability for farmers.
Related Stories
Rising ethanol stocks and softer gasoline demand bear watching, but stronger blending activity and exports offered some support.
Rising poultry supply is pressuring prices despite steady demand.
As part of this effort, USDA will establish a new National Food Safety Center (NFSC) in Urbandale, Iowa, which will serve as the primary hub for FSIS administrative, technical, and support operations.
Brazil’s ethanol growth could shift the corn trade.
Kansas row crop farmer Brad Keeler joins us to discuss drought conditions, planting decisions, input costs, and overall farmer sentiment in his region.
AFBF Economist Danny Munch joined us to discuss snowpack levels in the Colorado River Basin, water supply concerns, and the potential impact on agricultural production.
