NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — The Trump Administration continues to push for expanded export opportunities for U.S. agricultural products, signaling it is not relying solely on existing trade agreements as it seeks to increase trade volumes.
Recently announced trade deals with countries from Argentina and Guatemala to India, Malaysia, and Indonesia are in the pipeline — but many farmers and traders argue that no amount of U.S. global market expansion can make up for the loss of previous grain exports to China.
Export Inspections Stay Firm For Corn, Soybeans, Wheat
U.S. grain export inspections remained solid during the week ending February 5, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all posting volumes ahead of last year, while sorghum shipments stayed active with China in the mix. The latest USDA Market News data show continued export movement supporting demand across key commodities.
Corn inspections totaled about 51.5 million bushels, up from the prior week and well above the same period last year. Marketing-year-to-date corn inspections now stand near 1.34 billion bushels, running sharply ahead of last year’s pace as shipments to Mexico, Japan, and other destinations remain steady.
Soybean inspections reached roughly 41.7 million bushels for the week. While slightly below last week’s level, cumulative soybean inspections are holding near 850 million bushels for the marketing year. China remained a notable buyer, accounting for a significant share of soybean loadings through both Gulf and Pacific Northwest ports.
Wheat inspections totaled approximately 21.3 million bushels, nearly matching last year’s level for the same week. Year-to-date wheat inspections are now near 637 million bushels, continuing to outpace last season with strong movement of soft white and hard red classes to Asia and Latin America.
Sorghum inspections came in near 4.9 million bushels, with most shipments moving through the Gulf. China was again a primary destination, reinforcing sorghum’s role as an alternative feed grain in export channels.
Ocean Freight Risks Remain Despite Lower Average Rates
Ocean freight rates averaged lower in 2025, but the year underscored how quickly transportation risk can return for grain exporters. Short-term disruptions and global demand shifts repeatedly pushed rates higher despite favorable annual averages.
Early-year rate declines were driven by seasonal slowdowns, ample vessel supply, and weaker dry bulk demand. Those conditions reversed at times as global commodity flows increased, tightening vessel availability and lifting freight costs.
Late-summer and fall disruptions highlighted lingering vulnerability in global logistics. Low water levels on Argentina’s Parana River reduced vessel loading capacity, while pre-holiday shipping demand in Asia tightened coverage and raised rates for U.S. grain movements.
Fourth-quarter rates remained elevated compared with earlier in the year, even as monthly prices eased. The episode reinforced how external factors — weather, river conditions, and non-grain commodity demand — can rapidly affect shipping costs that farmers ultimately absorb.
For 2026, fleet growth could limit sustained rate spikes, but unexpected demand shifts or logistical constraints remain wild cards. The outlook suggests transportation risk has not disappeared, only changed form, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
What a Trade Deal with Indonesia Means for U.S. Agriculture
Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to discuss the latest developments in agricultural trade.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, Haney addresses comments from the U.S. Trade Representative indicating that Indonesia could be the next major trade deal and discusses what that could mean for U.S. agriculture. He also outlines the elements that would need to be included in an agreement with Indonesia for farmers to see it as a meaningful win.
Finally, Haney explains how this potential deal with Indonesia could fit into the broader agricultural trade picture, especially given that a Trump–Xi meeting is still scheduled.
