LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Uncertainty is shaping the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade in 2026 as tariffs and shifting trade relationships continue to disrupt long-established export patterns. Luis Ribera, director of the Center for North American Studies, says trade policy volatility has become a defining feature of the farm economy heading into the new year.
USDA projects U.S. agricultural exports to fall to $173 billion in 2026, the lowest level since 2021. That decline reflects both lower volumes and weaker values, driven primarily by reduced soybean and sorghum shipments to China. Ribera notes China has increasingly sourced those commodities from Brazil and Argentina as tariffs have altered relative prices and trade flows.
While U.S. exports to markets such as the European Union, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam have grown, those gains have not fully offset losses tied to China. As a result, overall export momentum remains fragile.
On the import side, U.S. agricultural imports are expected to peak at approximately $219 billion in 2025, then ease in 2026. Lower volumes of horticultural products and vegetable oils are projected, though higher prices for coffee and cocoa continue to lift import values. Ribera says recently announced tariff exemptions on select agricultural goods could help temper consumer food costs, but uncertainty remains elevated.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Stagger buys and diversifies fertilizer sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
November 07, 2025 11:16 AM
·
Distillers dried grains (DDG) values follow corn and soybean meal trends, with ethanol grind and feed demand shaping costs into early 2026.
November 07, 2025 10:45 AM
·
Recognizing phosphorus and potash as critical minerals underscores their importance in crop production and food security, providing producers with an added layer of risk protection.
November 06, 2025 03:40 PM
·
Pork producers should prioritize health and productivity gains, hedge feed and hogs selectively, and watch Brazil’s export pace and China’s sow policy for price signals.
November 06, 2025 03:03 PM
·
For tight margins, contract grazing leverages existing acres into new income streams and spreads risk. Here are some tips for row crop farmers looking to diversify.
November 06, 2025 02:45 PM
·
Texas Cattle Feeders Association Chairman Robby Kirkland explains how the ongoing U.S.-Mexico border closure impacts feed yards that rely on Mexican cattle due to the New World Screwworm.
November 06, 2025 12:01 PM
·
While the U.S.-China framework for soybean trade is in place, Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs tells us he will believe it when he sees it.
November 06, 2025 11:38 AM
·
Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
November 06, 2025 11:16 AM
·
Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.
November 06, 2025 10:53 AM
·
