LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Uncertainty is shaping the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade in 2026 as tariffs and shifting trade relationships continue to disrupt long-established export patterns. Luis Ribera, director of the Center for North American Studies, says trade policy volatility has become a defining feature of the farm economy heading into the new year.
USDA projects U.S. agricultural exports to fall to $173 billion in 2026, the lowest level since 2021. That decline reflects both lower volumes and weaker values, driven primarily by reduced soybean and sorghum shipments to China. Ribera notes China has increasingly sourced those commodities from Brazil and Argentina as tariffs have altered relative prices and trade flows.
While U.S. exports to markets such as the European Union, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam have grown, those gains have not fully offset losses tied to China. As a result, overall export momentum remains fragile.
On the import side, U.S. agricultural imports are expected to peak at approximately $219 billion in 2025, then ease in 2026. Lower volumes of horticultural products and vegetable oils are projected, though higher prices for coffee and cocoa continue to lift import values. Ribera says recently announced tariff exemptions on select agricultural goods could help temper consumer food costs, but uncertainty remains elevated.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
National Education Center for Ag Safety Director Dan Neenan joins us to discuss grain bin safety and the steps producers can take to prevent tragedies.
September 24, 2025 02:19 PM
·
What is it like working cattle with an outbreak of New World Screwworm so close to home? Wayne Cockrell, with the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association, joined us on Wednesday to discuss.
September 24, 2025 12:29 PM
·
Argentina hopes to boost demand, but critics see the move as a blow to American farmers.
September 24, 2025 11:35 AM
·
Kevin Charleston with Specialty Risk Insurance joined us Tuesday to share his perspective on farm safety and risk management during fall harvest.
September 23, 2025 04:33 PM
·
Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
September 23, 2025 01:32 PM
·
China is making strategic moves by purchasing more soybeans from Argentina and may soon follow the EU and reopen its market to Brazilian chicken exports.
September 23, 2025 01:21 PM
·
Lamb prices have seen a surprising surge driven by a tight supply and increasing demand in non-traditional markets.
September 23, 2025 12:40 PM
·
Farmers should watch for soybean export rebounds with harvest, while corn and wheat shipments remain strong and sorghum demand struggles.
September 23, 2025 11:54 AM
·
Rollins says the new trade relationship with Taiwan, which is committed to buying a significant amount of U.S. soy, could not come at a better time for farmers facing financial strain.
September 23, 2025 11:06 AM
·
