LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Uncertainty is shaping the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade in 2026 as tariffs and shifting trade relationships continue to disrupt long-established export patterns. Luis Ribera, director of the Center for North American Studies, says trade policy volatility has become a defining feature of the farm economy heading into the new year.
USDA projects U.S. agricultural exports to fall to $173 billion in 2026, the lowest level since 2021. That decline reflects both lower volumes and weaker values, driven primarily by reduced soybean and sorghum shipments to China. Ribera notes China has increasingly sourced those commodities from Brazil and Argentina as tariffs have altered relative prices and trade flows.
While U.S. exports to markets such as the European Union, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam have grown, those gains have not fully offset losses tied to China. As a result, overall export momentum remains fragile.
On the import side, U.S. agricultural imports are expected to peak at approximately $219 billion in 2025, then ease in 2026. Lower volumes of horticultural products and vegetable oils are projected, though higher prices for coffee and cocoa continue to lift import values. Ribera says recently announced tariff exemptions on select agricultural goods could help temper consumer food costs, but uncertainty remains elevated.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Kevin Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance discusses the importance of grain bin safety and joint efforts with Nationwide to provide farmers and first responders with access to critical, life-saving rescue tubes.
February 10, 2026 03:57 PM
·
RealAg Radio host Sean Haney outlines the Trump Administration’s current trade priorities and what meaningful market expansion looks like for farmers.
February 10, 2026 03:08 PM
·
Dr. Kelly Bruns from the Nebraska College of Technical Agriculture discusses how the college prepares students for careers in agriculture.
February 10, 2026 02:27 PM
·
Bankruptcy filings reflect prolonged margin pressure, rising debt, and limited financial flexibility across farm country. Bigger operating loans are helping farms manage costs, but they also signal growing reliance on borrowed capital.
February 10, 2026 01:35 PM
·
USDA’s February WASDE report, analysts expect minimal price movement as grain stocks remain steady. Traders weigh renewed Chinese soybean purchases, South American weather, acreage shifts, and upcoming USMCA trade talks.
February 10, 2026 01:11 PM
·
RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey was in Mission, Texas, where state and federal officials addressed growers and producers at a round table event hosted at a citrus grower’s facility. He shows us how welcome news was all around.
February 10, 2026 12:05 PM
·
