USDA Lowers Cattle Prices as Beef Output Rises

Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.

beef cattle.jpg

Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) for December from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects higher 2025 beef production and lower cattle prices as slaughter runs above expectations and carcass weights trend heavier.

Beef imports for 2025 are expected to be lower based on trade data to date, but are projected to increase in 2026 as tariff changes improve access for key suppliers. Beef exports are trimmed for both years, reflecting softer demand in major markets.

Hog sector projections shift modestly lower for 2025, with reduced slaughter pulling production down and pressuring late-year prices. Pork exports are expected to be lower this year but to rebound in 2026 as global demand improves.

Dairy outlooks are mixed. Milk production is unchanged in 2025 but lower in 2026, as smaller cow inventories offset productivity gains. Butter remains competitive in global markets, supporting export gains, while cheese prices weaken amid soft domestic demand. The all-milk price is cut to $21.00 per cwt for 2025 and $18.75 for 2026.

In the poultry sector, broiler production rose on earlier-year gains, but turkey output drops due to HPAI culling, and egg forecasts remain steady.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
The dairy industry continues adapting to changing consumer habits and evolving labor technology.
The pricing signals come as biofuel and corn groups continue to press Congress for permanent nationwide E15 access.
Bushel’s State of the Farm report found that many producers are willing to test new tools.
NPPC President Rob Brenneman says rising fuel and input costs are creating pressure across pork production despite steady trade.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Genevieve Collins from Americans for Prosperity discusses rising Texas property taxes, potential relief, and impacts on farmers, ranchers, and rural communities.
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney joins us to discuss geopolitical trade tensions, energy market volatility, and what global shifts could mean for U.S. agriculture exports.
National Pork Producers Council President Rob Brenneman joins us to discuss Prop 12 provisions in the House’s Farm Bill as it heads to the Senate for debate.
This case could influence how much leverage grain shippers have when a preferred rail outlet is blocked or priced too high.
U.S. Cattlemen’s Association President Justin Tupper joins us to discuss the DOJ packer investigation, industry competition, and the outlook for cattle producers.
Farm Bureau economist Dr. Faith Parum says EPA’s final biofuel volumes keep corn demand steady and strengthen the outlook for soybean-based diesel feedstocks.