LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Uncertainty around U.S. beef processing capacity is raising fresh questions about whether large-scale heifer retention is even necessary as the industry looks toward rebuilding the cow herd. Recent plant closures and production cutbacks suggest slaughter capacity may shrink before expansion efforts fully begin.
According to analysis from Don Close of Terrain, Tyson Foods’ decision to close its Lexington, Nebraska, beef plant and reduce production at its Amarillo, Texas, facility has altered the balance between fed cattle supply and slaughter capacity. With fewer cattle needed by packers, feedyards may be able to meet demand using existing inventories, reducing the need to bid aggressively for feeder cattle.
USDA data continue to show that heifer retention has not meaningfully started. Heifers on feed remained flat through the third quarter, confirming that producers have not yet shifted toward herd rebuilding. At the same time, years of cow liquidation across both beef and dairy sectors have left an aging herd with limited replacement depth.
Close warns that further reductions in processing capacity could discourage expansion, locking the industry into tighter supplies and slower recovery.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Shrinking slaughter capacity may delay heifer retention, complicating herd rebuilding plans.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
The report shows that, despite production challenges, dairy farmers are producing more milk with fewer resources per gallon across the industry.
December 23, 2025 12:45 PM
·
Smaller U.S. production and steady global demand could provide better pricing opportunities in 2026.
December 23, 2025 12:12 PM
·
Higher yields are cushioning lower acreage, but reduced production could support firmer potato prices into 2026.
December 23, 2025 11:22 AM
·
Producers across the country balanced winter weather disruptions, shifting export demand, and tightening margins as year-end decisions come into focus.
December 22, 2025 03:50 PM
·
Reviewing risk management now can help dairy and livestock producers enter 2026 with clearer margins and fewer surprises.
December 22, 2025 03:19 PM
·
With record grain harvests and rising global ethanol demand, leaders across the ag and energy sectors are pushing for year-round E15 sales to mitigate the strain on grain trade.
December 22, 2025 02:45 PM
·
Small, locally focused wineries are finding resilience through direct sales and regional loyalty rather than scale alone.
December 22, 2025 02:05 PM
·
Pork producers warn that proposed definitions of “ultra-processed” food in guidelines from the “Make America Healthy Again” plan could negatively impact industry-standard bacon, sausage, and feed practices.
December 22, 2025 01:38 PM
·
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) and Public Lands Council (PLC) are praising the passage of a bill to delist gray wolves as an endangered species by the U.S. House last week.
December 22, 2025 01:23 PM
·
